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电玩捕鱼游戏机
作者:老牛吃嫩草    发布于:16-03-19 06:51:00    文字:【】【】【
新坐标、新合作、新希望——透视穿越世界经济迷雾的中国引力 当前世界经济,可谓“迷雾重重”。旧的增长引擎已经衰减,新的增长动能尚未发力;新的风险正在积聚,不确定性有增无减;主要经济体各有难处,深层博弈增强,协调难度加大。  谁能拥有穿越迷雾的眼睛,让世界经济“强劲、可持续和平衡”的增长不再只是梦想?  两会刚刚闭幕的中国,备受全球瞩目。当下的供给侧结构性改革,中期的“十三五”规划,长期的转型升级前景,加上改善全球经济治理的坚定意愿,新一波中国引力磁场正在产生巨大能量,世界对此寄予新的期望。  “新平庸”下的“分与合”  国际货币基金组织(IMF)总裁拉加德年初曾断言,以经济长期低速增长为主要特征的世界经济“新平庸”日益成为现实。这种情况既是周期性的,也是结构性的,英国《金融时报》首席经济评论员马丁S沃尔夫如此评论。  全球金融危机发生7年多之后,世界经济寒意犹存。低增长、低贸易流动、低通货膨胀、低利率、低投资增长、低初级产品价格、债务水平普遍处于高位,“六低一高”的最新经济图景令人忧虑。  206年预计仅略高于3%的全球增长水平,远低于2008年全球金融危机前5年平均5%左右的增速。  低增速下,全球失业人数随之增多,206年和207年预计全球将新增340万失业人口。  全球贸易205年仅增长.2%,远低于2008年全球金融危机前0年平均6.7%的年增长率。不景气的贸易既是世界经济乏力的结果,却又成为增长低迷的原因。  ……  “新平庸”只是当前世界经济病症的表象,究其根本,病灶在于,上一轮科技和产业革命所提供的动能已经接近尾声,传统经济体制和发展模式的潜能趋于消退。  几年来,各国普遍通过财政货币政策刺激经济复苏,但效果各异,冷暖不均。困难时期,一些主要经济体自扫门前雪,政策分化严重,全球政策协调难度加大。发达经济体中,美国经济s率先复苏,步入升息通道;日本和欧洲则深陷低迷,步入负利率时代;新兴经济体压力巨大,只有中国和印度仍在保持中高增速。  低迷与分化之下,主要经济体宏观政策造成的溢出效应和溢回效应日益突出。经济学家普遍认为,美国联邦储备委员会去年2月启动的加息行动是全球经济中的最大不稳定因素。从去年下半年开始,美联储的加息预期就已经在全球造成巨大的外溢影响,造成大宗商品和金融市场震荡,许多经济体难以承受。而欧洲和日本的“直升机撒钱”式货币政策令流动性泛滥,却只是权宜之计,对经济振兴效果值得担忧。  毋庸讳言,中国经济增长放缓也在世界范围激起涟漪。美国财政部长雅各布S卢说,中国对世界经济的外溢影响超过原先的预想。《日本经济新闻》说,中国如何推进政策改革已不是一国本身的问题,而是左右世界经济动向的重要课题。  在早已深度互联的全球化经济中,主要经济体的政策牵一发而动全身。经济政策的溢出反过来又会溢回本国,影响自身以至世界经济的继续运行。各国清醒看到,面对世界经济的多向溢动,亟须趋利避害。因此,加强全球协调与合作更显紧迫。  IMF日前发出警告,如果不加强合作,世界经济复苏可能出现“脱轨”。  然而,合作需要意愿,需要资本,需要行动。尤为关键的是,动能何来?世界银行前行长佐利克说:“206年的关键问题是各国能否勇敢面对至关重要的结构改革。”  遍观全球,在结构改革方面有意愿,有能力,又有行动力的主要经济体,中国无疑表现突出。  “新常态”下的“退与进”  “今年我国发展面临的困难更多更大、挑战更为严峻”,政府工作报告明确指出。中国要高度警惕空前严峻的外部风险,财政部副部长朱光耀日前这样警告。  “新常态”下,中国政府抓住供给侧改革的新干线,去产能、去库存、去杠杆、降成本、补短板,可谓退中求进,进退有度。观察近段时间的中国经济,透过“稳”“升”“热”“实”等关键词,不难看到中国经济结构性变化已经呈现出大量新动能。  “稳”——就业总体稳定显示经济发展方式转变在加快。  电商巨头马云说,判断一国经济健康与否,主要看就业,尤其是年轻人就业。205年,中国城镇新增就业32万人,超过全年预期目标,城镇登记失业率为4.05%。同期,美国、俄罗斯、巴西的失业率约为5%、6%和9%,欧元区和南非更是高达0%和25%。今年的政府工作报告把城镇新增就业目标确定为000万人以上。这是一个能够保持经济稳健运行的理性数字。  世界银行行长金墉说:“中国经济是强劲的,其基本面是完好的。”  “升”——服务业升至经济“半壁江山”印证经济结构在优化。  服务业在国内生产总值中的比重首次上升到50.5%。消费对经济增长的贡献率升高到66.4%。高技术产业和装备制造业增速快于一般工业。  伊利诺伊理工大学斯图尔特商学院经济学教授哈伊里S图尔克认为,服务业的崛起是中国经济结构性变化的一个“强有力”标志。  高盛公司总裁兼首席运营官加里S科恩说,中国经济的未来发展不会停步,中国的蓬勃发展给世界带来了更多机遇。  “热”——全社会创业创新热情高涨印证新的发展动能在集聚。  创新驱动发展战略持续推进,互联网与各行业加速融合,新兴产业快速增长。大众创业、万众创新蓬勃发展,全年新登记注册企业增长2.6%,平均每天新增.2万户。  美国《福布斯》双周刊网站刊文说,互联网、智能设备和社交媒体成为中国消费者日常生活中的核心部分,这为创新者和企业家提供了巨大的机会。  “实”——中国宏观政策调控的工具箱依然充实。  如果说市场端的变化已经在呈现,政策端发力的后劲还会逐步显效。下好供给侧结构性改革这盘大棋,需要更好地发挥政府这只手的作用。面对不利经济形势,中国的政策工具箱依然有很多工具。  财政政策方面,中国财政赤字率和政府负债率低于世界主要经济体,财政政策操作空间充足。政府工作报告提出,今年拟安排财政赤字2.8万亿元,比去年增加5600亿元,赤字率提高到3%。这一比例明显低于美国、英国、法国和日本等发达国家。  货币政策方面,中国存款准备金率和基准利率处在相对高位,货币政策操作空间仍大。有国际媒体指出,“中国央行手中的弹药是美联储、欧洲央行和日本央行无法比拟的”。  拉加德称,中国在改革方面展现出了“难以置信的决心”,中国承诺进行一系列经济转型是一项艰巨的任务,“但对北京来说完全可以操控”。  再从对外经济政策上看,中国倡导“一带一路”,积极推动国际产能合作,新的国际合作空间和机遇被不断创造出来。  对此,布拉格经济大学国际研究中心学者加利克评论说,中国依靠新思维形成新优势。英国《经济学人》杂志则将中国的改革实验称为“伟大的转型”。  “新合作”带来新希望  “发动机”“稳定器”“压舱石”……近年来流行于国际舆论的这些词汇,深刻说明了中国与世界经济的关系。  有学者认为,自上世纪70年末的改革开放迄今,中国与世界经济关系经历了三个阶段:第一阶段的倾听者、模仿者、跟随者;第二阶段的学习者、互动者、赶超者。如今,中国日益呈现出贡献者、建设者、合作引领者的特征。把握新一轮世界经济合作的历史潮流,中国与世界经济关系3.0时代已经来临。  IMF的数据显示,过去5年,中国始终是世界经济增长的最大贡献者。在可以预见的未来,中国依然是世界经济增长的重要引擎。  实力带来影响力。中国外交部长王毅说:“中国在国际体系中的制度性权力得到显著提升。”英国《经济学人》说,中国在许多方面比以往任何时候都要强大,“中国奋力走到了世界舞台的前端”。  目前已有3万家中国企业遍布世界各地,众多中国人工作生活在全球各个角落。截至205年末,中国对外直接投资存量首次超过万亿美元大关。今后5年,中国将进口超过0万亿美元商品,这大约相当于3个德国的一年经济总量。市场、资本、商品……中国将在各个层面为世界经济带来深刻影响。  如果说一些悲观人士还在纠结中国经济会否崩溃,那些敏锐而务实的人却早已在积极研究如何搭乘中国发展快车的战略。  韩国《中央日报》评论中国两会的文章说,中国通过“供给侧改革”发展的知识、信息、文化、金融和服务业五大领域也将给韩国提供新机遇。现在韩国要周密研究中国经济的新道路,以此来探讨韩国经济的未来之路。  中国是今年二十国集团(G20)峰会主办国,一系列关于世界经济合作的议题将从这里展开。不久前在上海举行的G20财长和央行行长会议就给世界带来一股清新之风。这次会议公报显示,将启动全球基础设施互联互通联盟倡议,各国承诺避免货币竞争性贬值,建立G20绿色金融研究小组,促进更加可持续和环境友好型的增长……  越来越多迹象表明,中国信心不仅来自经济实力,也来自日益增长的“建立新共识”的软实力。中国经验“将为其他国家突破增长瓶颈提供借鉴”,一些海外媒体说,中国人应该为本国基本经济制度的优越性感到自信。  展望未来,无论是倡导亲诚惠荣的周边外交,“一带一路”国际产能合作,还是全球经济治理上的合作、互荣、共赢,中国坚决反对以邻为壑,而是“以邻为全球价值链的合作者”。随着时间推进,中国关于世界经济合作的这些理念得到越来越多的共鸣,成为推动国际格局演变的关键力量之一。  随着G20中国年大幕逐步拉开,国际社会希望这次峰会能够提振信心、凝聚共识、指引方向。各方期待,中国有能力拓展与世界经济关系的新边疆,协力使世界经济早日走出新平庸,构建更加公平、公正、开放的国际经济体系。
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