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凯时真人
作者:老牛吃嫩草    发布于:16-03-19 06:51:00    文字:【】【】【
周其仁:透过一朵郁金香,看房地产泡沫的根源 摘要:最近,上海等一线城市房地产价格的暴涨,又让大家有了很多想象的空间,很多人都在惊呼:泡沫又来了!那么,经济学上是如何定义泡沫的?北京大学国家发展研究院教授周其仁条分缕析荷兰历史上曾经更离谱的“郁金香狂潮”、“天下第一泡沫”,发现表面的“非理性”背后,却有着符合经济规律和常识的现实。  (搜狐财经思想库:让思维有乐趣,让思想有力量!汇集顶尖财经智慧,分享深刻透彻的调查研究,旨在普及常识,为网友提供思想洞见和专业分析。)  文/周其仁 北京大学国家发展研究院教授  一本英文小书,封面上的两朵郁金香楚楚动人。书的标题更吸引人,我把它译做《天下第一泡沫》(The Famous First Bubbles)。读完之后,我急不可耐想要告诉读者的,是该书作者盖伯尔(Peter Garber)将举世人云亦云的“泡沫”捅了一个大窟窿。  名花也蒙羞  当今流行的“泡沫”术语,原型之一就是郁金香投机狂潮。话说7世纪荷兰郁金香球茎的市价大涨。当时单个球茎传说可以卖到5500荷兰盾——那时候,20荷兰盾能买头牛或4头猪,92荷兰盾能买2吨黄油。荷兰盾是金币,5500个货币单位含黄金0盎司,以现今的金价计,值33000美元!而在“泡沫破灭”之后,球茎价格狂跌到不足“盛市”时的十分之一。古老相传,投机狂炒的众生相被简约成一个专用词——“郁金香狂潮”(Tulipmania)。  连权威的《新帕尔格雷夫经济学大词典》也收入了有关词条,虽然撰写人承认,“理论界尚未达成对泡沫状态的一致同意的定义”,不过,这似乎并不妨碍许多专家认为,“泡沫”可以直接由“郁金香狂潮”来定义,或者反过来也一样。“郁金香狂潮”使人相信,个人理性一旦进入市场就不再可靠,倘若没有政府的管制和学者的劝诫,自由市场注定要在疯狂中终结。  少见多怪是规律  唯有盖伯尔出来问了一句:真有“郁金香狂潮”这回事(Was This Episode a "Tulipmania")?他系统收集前人著述,考证当时的买卖合同与拍卖记录,一番由表及里、去伪存真的调查之后,结论是:所谓狂潮云云,不过是少见多怪。  原来郁金香的品种非常多。名贵的上品和大路货各有各的买主和市场,市价不可同日而语。最名贵的郁金香球茎的价格上涨由巴黎的时尚需求驱动,那时法国贵夫人和名媛流行的是用新鲜郁金香——一年的花期不超过7天——来做服饰。作者找到了确凿的证据:当时最别致的郁金香在巴黎单支卖价000荷兰盾。  郁金香花可以用种子栽培,也可以通过球茎——中国读者可以想到水仙花的球茎——培植。“球茎法”不但一年即可得花(种子法要7—2年),且能用一种“马赛克病毒”来“破裂”(breaking)而成奇花异卉。从经济的角度看,花可以卖钱,球茎当然就是资产。年收入000荷兰盾的资产值5000荷兰盾,正如年租金000元的房产值5000元,这算不得离谱吧?  要知道,时尚永远以异为贵:那些独到的新奇品种刚刚问世的时候,市场的出价总是疯狂。就是在当代荷兰,一个罕见的百合球茎的成交价你猜是多少?987年的一个记录是00万荷兰盾!这相当于999年的69万美元——整个一栋豪宅。  不过看似疯狂  其实,在637年2月前后市价波动最剧烈的,不是名贵花种,而是大路货。根据盖伯尔艰苦觅得的资料,637年月,一磅半重的“维特克鲁嫩”(Witte Croonen)球茎市价为64荷兰盾,但到2月5日就达668荷兰盾!然后直线下跌到起价线以下。一个商品的市价在短期内涨跌20—30倍,难道还不够疯狂?  够疯狂。不过事出有因。盖伯尔报告了几点。第一,郁金香球茎每年9月栽入苗床,来年4—5月发花,6月移出,因此在9月至次年6月间的价格均为“期货”价格。第二,636年中一大批非专业人士涌入大路货市场。第三,“新人们”做生意的方式不同于传统规矩:()基本没有书面合同;(2)不要公证人;(3)接单无须交纳定金,只需每单付—3荷兰盾的“酒钱”(wine money);第四,这些比较“野”的交易,地方法院不提供履约的法律服务。就是说,这些“风中交易”(wind trade)的喊价是用来撞大运的,买卖双方都不当真。据记载,637年2月之后,“卖家”要求“买家”按当初定价的3%—0%付账而不被理会的,所在多有。  至于那些中规中矩的生意——主要是名贵球茎的交易,价格下跌的幅度要小得多。证据显示,几种稀有品种球茎在642—643年的市价约为其637年2月顶峰价的6%—30%。就是说,年度平均跌幅在24%—35%,与后来8世纪郁金香球茎市价的长期变动幅度相似。  三人成虎,中外皆然  这本小书的厉害之处,是顺藤摸瓜,追查这个现在已经举世闻名的“故事”的来龙去脉。说来由不得你不相信:全部现代著作关于郁金香狂潮的描述,皆来自一位M先生(Mackay)84年一本书里的7页。这本书抄袭了另外一位先生关于哈尔勒郁金香市场的记载,后者除了援引一个英国旅行家——他705年到过当地,对70年前发生的投机传闻不过在日记里记了一句话——之外,全部摘自一本叫《G&W》的小册子。经考证,《G&W》系荷兰地方当局编写,旨在规劝人民远离投机活动,相当于我们今天看到的“抽烟有害健康”或“股市有风险,入市要谨慎”。  让我长话短说。直到本书作者989年发表关于“郁金香狂潮”的论文前,没有人整理出一份比较完整的时间序列的郁金香球茎市价变动表。更没有人系统地区分清楚种种不同的郁金香球茎——以及各种不同的交易和价格——的实际含义。人们宁愿复述、传播甚至再创作“郁金香狂潮”这样一个“模式化的事实”(stylized fact),并以此为基础,产出更多的术语、理论、模型、推理、管制大计和道德规劝。  读完本书,我们也许可以得到另外一个对“泡沫”的定义:基于对实际交易情形的无知而无法解释的资产价格的大起大落。让我说明,“无知”不是罪过,我们甚至不必为之难为情——承认无知毕竟可以刺激求知。问题是,为什么要给无知包上一件“大有学问”的术语外衣,还偏偏要以美丽的郁金香的名义?  小公告:人文经济讲座第9期将于3月20日(周日)在北京举行,周其仁教授应邀担任本期主讲人。  (来源于微信公众号“人文经济学会”)  更多内容见搜狐财经思想库,请扫下方二维码进入:
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